Sometimes, a random investigation of statistics can lead to important changes in Front Office Football. Going back to the first edition of the game, fumble recoveries have been a bit off. While the total fumble numbers mirror the NFL very closely, as well as who recovers the ball, what happens after the recovery isn’t as well studied.

I had that in the back of my mind a couple of times over the years, but never did the legwork. A couple of weeks ago, as I was watching the bizarre overtime finish between Arizona and Green Bay, I decided it was time to take a good luck at the numbers.

I happen to have the 2007 season boxscores in an easily searchable format, so I started my investigation with that year. What I saw was enough to warrant some changes. There were 27 fumble return touchdowns in the NFL in 2007 - all by the defense. One was on a fumbled punt snap, one on a kickoff return. Only three were on designed run plays, and six were on completed passes.

The surprise? Other than the lack of returns on run plays was the fact that 16 of the 27 touchdowns came on sacks or plays where the quarterback bobbled the snap. So it’s time to reflect this in the game.

The 2010 NFL Amateur Draft Order:

1. St. Louis (1-15) 133 opponent wins
2. Detroit (2-14) 134
3. Tampa Bay (3-13) 142
4. Washington (4-12) 126
5. Kansas City (4-12) 132
6. Seattle (5-11) 122
7. Cleveland (5-11) 131
8. Oakland (5-11) 135
9. Buffalo (6-10) 132
10 (t). Jacksonville (7-9) 127 (subject to coin flip)
10 (t). Chicago (7-9) 127 (subject to coin flip)
12. Miami (7-9) 143
13. San Francisco (8-8) 122
14. Denver (8-8) 135
15. New York Giants (8-8) 137
16 (t). Carolina (8-8) 138 (subject to coin flip)
16 (t). Tennessee (8-8) 138 (subject to coin flip)
18. Pittsburgh (9-7) 125
19 (t). Atlanta (9-7) 129 (subject to coin flip)
19 (t). Houston (9-7) 129 (subject to coin flip)
21. New York Jets (9-7)* 132
22. Baltimore (9-7)* 134
23. Arizona (10-6)* 114
24. Cincinnati (10-6)* 126
25. New England (10-6)* 132
26. Green Bay (11-5)* 113
27. Philadelphia (11-5)* 124
28. Dallas (11-5)* 125
29. Minnesota (12-4)* 113
30. New Orleans (13-3)* 109
31. San Diego (13-3)* 116
32. Indianapolis (14-2)* 121

* - playoff teams reseeded based on how far they go in the playoffs.

Taking a quick look at the top eleven picks in the 2010 draft based on the early results:

1. St. Louis 1-15
2. Detroit 2-14
3. Tampa Bay 3-13 (could be 3 or 4, depending on Kansas City)
4. Kansas City 3-12 (3 with a loss today, 4 or 5 with a win)
5. Washington 4-11 (4 or 5 with a loss today, 5 or 6 with a win)
6. Cleveland 5-11 (could be 6 or 7, depending on Seattle)
7. Seattle 5-10 (5 or 6 with a loss today, 7 or 8 with a win)
8. Oakland 5-10 (7 or 8 with a loss today, 9 with a win)
9. Buffalo 6-10 (could be 8 or 9, depending on Oakland)
10. Jacksonville 7-9 (could be 10 or 11, depending on schedule strength)
11. Chicago 7-9 (could be 10 or 11, depending on schedule strength)

With one Sunday remaining in the season, here’s a look at the top ten in next spring’s amateur draft:

The range above refers to the highest or lowest a team can finish in the draft order.

I want to examine the race for the top pick a little more thoroughly. It will belong to the Rams should they lose to San Francisco, a one-touchdown favorite. But what if Detroit loses to Chicago and the Rams win?

There can’t be a coin-flip for this pick, because St. Louis beat Detroit, head-to-head, for its only win to date. This means the Rams would need a lower opponent strength-of-schedule than the Lions to receive the first pick.

The race would be razor-thin, with eight different game affecting strength of schedule.

The Lions would have a one-game deficit (which is good in this case), gaining from Pittsburgh (Miami), Minnesota (New York Giants), Cleveland (Jacksonville), Green Bay (Arizona), Cincinnati (New York Jets) and Baltimore (Oakland).

The Rams would gain from Jacksonville (Cleveland), Indianapolis (Buffalo), Houston (New England) and Arizona (Green Bay).

If the odds-on favorites win each of these games, and St. Louis wins while Detroit loses, then St. Louis would have a schedule strength of 133-123 and Detroit a strength of 134-122, giving the first pick to the Rams. However, Cleveland is favored by one point over Jacksonville. Reverse that result and strength of schedule result above reverses as well. So this race is much, much too close to call.

With two weeks remaining in the season, a look at the playoff possibilities. All projections involve assigning a point spread to each game, and simulating results of key games based on that point spread.

First, the AFC:

AFC East: New England wins the division with one win or one Miami loss. The New York Jets are eliminated. I’m giving the Patriots a 94% chance of winning the division, Miami 6%.

AFC North: Cincinnati holds all tie-breakers because the Bengals swept all six division games. A win or a Ravens loss clinches the division. I’m giving Cincinnati a 93% chance of winning the division, Baltimore 7%.

AFC South:  Indianapolis has locked up home advantage throughout the playoffs.

AFC West: San Diego has won the division. The Chargers would lock up a first-round bye with a win or a New England loss. At 11-5, the Patriots hold the tie-breaker over San Diego. If the Bengals join that group at 11-5, they will not have the strength of victory to alter that result. San Diego has a 93% chance of earning the bye, New England 7%.

Wild Card:  The following teams could potentially earn a wild card spot: New England (9-5), Cincinnati (9-5), Baltimore (8-6), Denver (8-6), Miami (7-7), New York Jets (7-7), Pittsburgh (7-7), Jacksonville (7-7), Tennessee (7-7) and Houston (7-7). That’s almost one-third of the entire NFL.

Running the percentages:

New England: 94% chance of winning division, 3% chance of winning wild card. Clinches playoff spot with a win or a Miami loss. Chances helped with Baltimore losses, Cincinnati losses, Denver losses, New York Jets wins, Tennessee wins, and Jacksonville losses.

Cincinnati:  93% chance of winning division, 2% chance of winning wild card. Clinches playoff spot with a win or a Baltimore loss. Chances helped with New England wins, Tennessee wins, Miami losses, Denver losses, Jacksonville losses, and New York Jets losses.

Baltimore: 7% chance of winning division, 59% chance of winning wild card. Chances helped with New York Jets losses, Jacksonville losses, Denver losses, Miami losses, Tennessee losses, San Diego wins, Kansas City wins and Houston wins.

Denver: 53% chance of winning wild card. Chances helped with Pittsburgh losses, New York Jets losses, Jacksonville losses, Tennessee losses and Houston wins.

Jacksonville: 29% chance of winning wild card. Chances helped with Baltimore losses, New York Jets losses, Denver losses, Tennessee losses and Kansas City wins.

Miami: 6% chance of winning division, 13% chance of winning wild card. Eliminated with a loss to Pittsburgh in week 17, but not completely with a loss to Houston next week. Chances helped with Cincinnati losses, New England losses, Tennessee losses and Kansas City wins.

New York Jets: 18% chance of winning wild card. Eliminated with any loss. Chances helped with Baltimore losses, Denver losses, Jacksonville losses, Cincinnati losses, Miami losses, Tennessee losses, Pittsburgh wins, New England wins and Kansas City wins.

Pittsburgh: 14% chance of winning wild card. Eliminated with loss to Miami in week 17, but not with loss to Baltimore next week. Chances helped with Baltimore losses, New York Jets losses, Denver losses, Jacksonville losses, Houston losses, New England wins and Tennessee wins.

Houston: 6% chance of winning wild card. Eliminated with any loss. Chances helped with Baltimore losses, New York Jets losses, Denver losses, Jacksonville losses, Tennessee losses and Kansas City wins.

Tennessee: 4% chance of winning wild card. Eliminated with any loss. Chances helped with Baltimore losses, New York Jets losses, Jacksonville losses, Denver losses and New England wins.

Now, the NFC:

NFC East:  The Eagles play at Dallas in week 17. Unless Dallas loses at Washington next week and Philadelphia beats Denver, that game will be for the division title. Philadelphia has a 66% chance of winning the division, Dallas 34%.

NFC North: Minnesota has clinched the division title.

NFC South: New Orleans has clinched the division title and a first-round bye. The Saints would clinch home field throughout the playoffs with one win or one Minnesota loss.

NFC West: Arizona has clinched the division title.

First-round byes:

New Orleans: I would give the Saints a 93% chance of home field throughout.

Minnesota: I would give the Vikings a 7% chance of home field throughout, and a 65% chance of a first-round bye.

Philadelphia: I would give the Eagles a 28% chance of a first-round bye. The Eagles would hold any tiebreaker over Minnesota and Arizona.

Dallas: I would give the Cowboys a 5% chance of a first-round bye. This would require two Minnesota losses and one Arizona loss.

Arizona: I would give the Cardinals a 2% chance of a first-round bye. This would require two Minnesota losses and Dallas winning the NFC East.

Wild Card: The following teams could earn a wild card berth:  Philadelphia (10-4), Dallas (9-5), Green Bay (9-5) and New York Giants (8-6). Atlanta (7-7) could tie for a wild-card-worthy record, but the Falcons’ conference record precludes winning a tiebreaker.

Philadelphia:  66% chance of winning the division, 34% chance of winning a wild-card spot, clinched playoff berth.

Green Bay: 82% chance of a wild-card spot. Chances improved with New York Giants losses and Dallas losses.

Dallas: 34% chance of winning the division, 38% chance of winning a wild-card spot. Chances improved with New York Giants losses and Green Bay losses.

New York Giants: 46% chance of winning a wild-card spot. Chances improved with Dallas losses and Green Bay losses.

With the end of the NFL season in sight, it’s time to take a look at the potential order for the 2010 NFL draft. N’braska’s Ndamukong Suh, the dynamic defensive lineman, looks to be a potential prize for the team picking first.

I’ve looked over the remaining schedule, and this is the projected draft order, based purely on expected favorites winning in each game during the last two weeks of the year:

1. St. Louis, 1-15, opponents’ record 138-118
2. Tampa Bay, 2-14, 142-114
3. Detroit, 3-13, 131-125
4. Kansas City, 3-13, 133-123
5 (coin flip). Washington, 4-12, 128-128
5 (coin flip). Cleveland, 4-12, 128-128
7. Seattle, 5-11, 124-132
8. Chicago, 5-11, 128-128
9. Oakland, 5-11, 132-124
10. Buffalo, 5-11, 133-123
11. Carolina, 6-10, 143-113
12. Pittsburgh, 7-9, 126-130
13. San Francisco, 8-8, 125-131
14. Jacksonville, 8-8, 128-128
15. New York Jets, 8-8, 135-121
16. Houston, 8-8, 136-120
17. Tennessee, 8-8, 141-115
18. Atlanta, 9-7, 126-130
19 (coin flip). New York Giants, 9-7, 138-118
19 (coin flip). Miami, 9-7, 138-118
21. Denver, 9-7, 134-122 (in playoffs)
22. Green Bay, 10-6, 111-145
23. Cincinnati, 10-6, 119-137
24. Baltimore, 10-6, 129-127
25. New England, 10-6, 135-121
26. Arizona, 11-5, 114-142
27. Philadelphia, 11-5, 123-133
28. Dallas, 11-5, 125-131
29. Minnesota, 13-3, 107-149
30. San Diego, 13-3, 117-139
31. New Orleans, 15-1, 105-151
32. Indianapolis, 16-0, 124-132

This assumes some victories in tight games, like Detroit beating Chicago in week 1, a game that should be a toss-up in Vegas. I’ll focus a little more on the top ten, which includes teams that have already lost at least nine games.

There are two games remaining involving bottom-ten teams where there won’t be a clear favorite. The Chicago game in week 17, and Oakland at Cleveland next week.

If Detroit ends up losing to Chicago, the Bears would drop to tenth in the draft and Detroit would rise to number two. Given the fact the Rams, likely first in the draft, will be under considerable pressure to draft a quarterback, this could be quite significant in the Suh derby. Of course the Rams could well use this to their advantage, dropping down a few spots and collecting quite a ransom for the right to draft Suh.

I have Cleveland beating Oakland in my projected list above, though that game should be a toss-up as well. If the Raiders were to prevail on the road, that would drop them to tenth and Cleveland would rise to number four. Give Detroit back that victory, and it’s number three for the Browns.

Now, the Rams are guaranteed the top pick if they lose at Arizona next week and at home to the 49ers in week 17. What if the Rams have an upset left in them? After all, they did win at Detroit in week 8, took Jacksonville to overtime in week six and were competitive last week at home to Houston.

Giving St. Louis a victory, three teams could finish as badly as 2-14. In that event, Detroit would gain the first pick, followed by the Rams and Tampa Bay. Keep in mind these projections are based on favorites winning all other games. Several upsets could change strength of schedule.

Five different teams could finish 3-13, though it’s more than unlikely. That would mean an upset win for the Buccaneers, the Lions winning a game and St. Louis winning both its remaining games. In that case, Cleveland and Detroit would likely pick 1-2, strength of schedule being just about tied. And St. Louis and Kansas City would be just about tied for picks 3 and 4. Tampa Bay would likely pick fifth.

Finally, I’ll take a very detailed look at the race for the second pick. This assumes the Rams will finish with the first pick at 1-15, and the Lions and Buccaneers will be 2-14, with the team with the lower strength of schedule picking second.

In this scenario, Detroit would have an eight-game edge in strength of schedule, and would be looking for losses from Minnesota and Chicago (double value), Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Green Bay, Cincinnati and Baltimore down the stretch.

Tampa Bay would seek losses from Carolina and Atlanta (double value), Dallas, Buffalo, the Giants and the Jets, Philadelphia, New England, Miami and New Orleans.

Assigning wins where I see a point spread of a touchdown or more, I see Detroit’s edge over Tampa Bay as insurmountable.

I was so sad when Hunter Lawrence took advantage of that final second on the clock and nudged a 46-yard field goal past the left upright, helping Texas beat Nebraska, 13-12. If Nebraska had won, the screaming over whether Texas Christian, a mid-major, or Cincinnati, a recent mid-major, deserved to play Alabama for the national title might have actually had a tiny chance of getting the 66 most stubborn people in America (the presidents of universities playing major football) to vote to enact a playoff in the future.

But that kick slid through, close but definitely good. And the second replaced on the clock slightly controversial, but only if you’re a rabid Nebraska fan. Hopes of reform faded for a while.

Texas (13-0) will play Alabama (13-0) for the national title in January. That’s our system. It produced a compelling game and probably little whining over this season’s eventual champion.

Here’s what the standings will likely look like tomorrow:

1. Alabama (13-0, SEC*), 2. Texas (13-0, Big XII*), 3. Cincinnati (12-0, Big East*), 4. Florida (12-1, SEC*), 5. Texas Christian (12-0, Mountain West*), 6. Boise State (13-0, WAC), 7. Oregon (10-2, Pac Ten*), 8. Ohio State (10-2, Big Ten*), 9. Georgia Tech (11-2, ACC*), 10. Iowa (10-2, Big Ten), 11. Penn State (10-2, Big Ten), 12. Virginia Tech (9-3, ACC), 13. Louisiana State (9-3, SEC), 14. Brigham Young (10-2, Mountain West), 15. Miami, Florida (9-3, ACC).

The starred teams will receive automatic BCS berths. The six major conference champs are invited. Florida gets in for finishing in the top four. TCU receives one for being the top mid-major in the top 12.

That leaves Boise State, Iowa, Penn State, Virginia Tech and Brigham Young eligible for the two remaining at-large berths. Louisiana State can’t go since only two teams per conference can participate. Miami is out because only the top 14 teams in the standings are eligible.

We should also dismiss Brigham Young. A 10-2 school from a mid-major won’t generate much support from the bowl committees. Only one of the eligible Big Ten teams can play, for the same reason LSU can not.

So, who will the bowls pick? While we should keep in mind that the BCS discourages rematches of in-season games, that can’t be a factor with the eligible teams. The BCS also discourages a rematch of a major bowl last season, or inviting the same school from last season. That could come into play in the Orange Bowl, where Virginia Tech beat Cincinnati a year ago.

With that in mind, here’s how I see tomorrow’s draft working:

- Alabama and Texas finish 1-2 in the polls, giving them spots in the title game.
- Ohio State and Oregon are placed in the Rose Bowl, as winners of the host conferences.
- Georgia Tech is placed in the Orange Bowl, as the winner of the ACC.

Those are the five positions set in stone, with Cincinnati, Texas Christian and Florida guaranteed invitations elsewhere.

The Sugar Bowl selects next, since it lost Alabama, the top-ranked team, to the title game. It will certainly select Florida. The Gators went to Miami last year for the championship game, so New Orleans would love to see Gator fans visit this year.

The Fiesta Bowl selects seventh, for losing the Big XII champion Longhorns to the championship game. This is the opportunity to take the team that will travel best. TCU is a tempting selection based on the quality of the team, but the Horned Frogs’ fan base is small - averaging only 38,000 at home games this year (a school record). The stadium holds 44,000.

Boise State’s stadium is even smaller, but the Bronco fans have a better reputation for supporting their team. That pales in comparison to Big Ten fans, however. Penn State last went to the Fiesta Bowl in 1997. Iowa will be ranked one spot higher and has never been. I think that will make a big difference, as will the fact that Iowa beat Arizona in September at home, one of the league’s better non-conference wins. Iowa also beat Penn State head-to-head. Quarterback Ricky Stanzi’s status is unknown for a bowl game (even his facebook gives us no clues). That could play a role, but I believe Iowa gets the Fiesta spot because the Fiesta can no longer put together a lucrative Penn State/Pittsburgh rivalry matchup.

The Orange Bowl selects eighth, finding an opponent for Georgia Tech. That rules out Virginia Tech, and Penn State is now eliminated because the Big Ten can’t send three schools to the BCS. This leaves Cincinnati, which went to Miami last year and wouldn’t be a good pick, Boise State, and Texas Christian. I think TCU is the safest choice, as the highest in the rankings. This will be a compelling bowl match.

The Fiesta selects ninth, pairing a team with Iowa. Since Boise State went to the Fiesta almost three years ago, there may be some reluctance to ask them again. But Cincinnati, which doesn’t sell out its Big-East-smallest 32,000-seat stadium, isn’t all that compelling for a longer trip. Virginia Tech has twice the fan base, and plays in a major conference. This is the biggest choice the BCS has to make. Boise State put on a wonderful show in that 2007 Fiesta Bowl, and fans are excited.

There’s some value in inviting an undefeated team for a big test on a neutral site. The game itself will be more compelling. Virginia Tech, coming off a 9-3 season in which they didn’t even win their division in the ACC, is a harder sell on television. While a 9-3 at-large team has made one previous BCS appearance (Illinois two years ago), the media will squeal if this comes at the expense of an undefeated mid-major that did beat a top-ten team despite the lack of anything remotely interesting on the rest of its schedule. So I think Boise State gets this spot.

The Sugar Bowl, picking last, gets undefeated Cincinnati to face Florida. While this may seem like a consolation prize for the Bearcats, it’s going to be a good game.

Summarizing:

NC: Alabama (13-0) vs Texas (13-0)
Rose: Oregon (10-2) vs Ohio State (10-2)
Sugar: Florida (12-1) vs Cincinnati (12-0)
Fiesta: Iowa (10-2) vs Boise State (13-0)
Orange: Georgia Tech (11-2) vs Texas Christian (12-0)

This season is shaping up as a fairly easy one as far as BCS decision-making is concerned. But there’s one decision looming that makes everyone concerned a bit queasy: what to do about Boise State?

The media loves the underdog. So, while Boise State won’t get an automatic BCS bid, an undefeated team from a mid-major conference brings out that pooch-lover in every writer. What more do the Broncos have to accomplish? They beat all comers. How do you banish them to a minor bowl while rewarding a three-loss school from a major conference?

The skeptic points to the Broncos’ ridiculously easy schedule - quite probably the easiest in the entire country. First, a challenge against a very respectable Oregon team, but on that ludicrous blue turf that disguises the Boise State players and gives everyone headaches. Then running the table against a collection of fairly poor teams and a conference with no depth. If everyone played a schedule like that, we’d likely have 15-20 unbeaten teams.

Here’s a conference-by-conference wrap-up of where we are now:

SEC

One plays two next weekend, and no one outside the immediate vicinity of Alabama and Florida particularly cares. Winner goes to the championship, loser goes to the Sugar Bowl. SEC 1 and 2 are guaranteed automatic BCS berths this year, leaving Louisiana State, a potential at-large pick at 9-3, on the sidelines, since no conference can send more than two teams to the BCS.

Big Ten

Despite a poor season for the Big Ten, it’s now looking near-certain the conference will send two teams to the BCS. Ohio State gets the automatic Rose Bowl berth. It’s between Iowa (likely 9th in the standings) and Penn State (likely 10th) for an at-large berth. There will be pressure on the BCS to take Iowa, as the higher-ranked team, and a convincing winner of the head-to-head match with the Nittany Lions. Penn State offers a little more prestige. There’s also the potential for a Penn State/Pittsburgh matchup in the Fiesta Bowl if the Panthers can beat Cincinnati.

Big Twelve

If Texas beats Nebraska next week in the Big Twelve title game, it will go to the national championship. If not, controversy will reign like controversy has never reigned before in the BCS. So, from my own perspective… Go Huskers. Texas would receive an at-large bid if it lost, as well. No other team is in position to gain an at-large bid.

ACC

Due to Georgia’s upset of Georgia Tech today, only the winner of next week’s ACC championship between Georgia Tech and Clemson is certain to go to the BCS. The loser will not go. However, 9-3 Virginia Tech (likely 11th in the standings) is a strong at-large candidate (hold your ears, Boise State fans).

Big East

The winner of next week’s Cincinnati/Pittsburgh game goes to the BCS as the conference champion. If Pittsburgh wins, the then-11-1 Bearcats would be an at-large candidate (maybe 10th in the standings).

Pac Ten

The winner of next week’s Oregon/Oregon State game goes to the BCS as the conference champion. I don’t see Oregon and USC as extremely strong at-large candidates at 9-3. Oregon State would not be eligible with a loss.

Mid-Majors

Texas Christian, at 12-0, will receive an automatic BCS berth. Boise State, almost certainly 13-0, will probably be ranked 6th in the final standings, and has a good chance at an at-large berth.

The Championship

The winner of the Alabama/Florida game will be the top-ranked team in the standings. Texas will be second, given a win over Nebraska. But, if Nebraska wins, all hell breaks loose.

The Alabama/Florida loser could be ranked second, meaning a rematch. This almost happened three years ago with Michigan and Ohio State, but the voters rebelled. Yeah, it was only three years ago that Michigan had an elite football program.

Texas Christian could command that opportunity, as the second highest-ranking team to win its last game. Or Cincinnati could leap-frog TCU with a win at Pittsburgh. Or Texas might not fall as far as the Alabama/Florida loser if it’s a close, controversial loss to Nebraska. Whichever team is picked, we’d likely have another split national champion if the SEC winner were upset.

Did I say it? Go Huskers!

Other BCS Games

The eight automatic berths (SEC runner-up, for finishing in the top four, and TCU, as a mid-major in the top 12) are set. The following teams could claim the two at-large bids:

Texas, at 12-1, with a loss to Nebraska.
Iowa or Penn State, at 10-2 (one or the other, the Big Ten can’t send both)
Cincinnati, at 11-1, with a loss at Pittsburgh.
Boise State, at 13-0, with a win hosting New Mexico State (ranked 119th of 120 FBS teams).
Virginia Tech, at 9-3.

From the Boise State perspective, rooting for Texas and Cincinnati is a given. Both will be favored, though Pittsburgh, at home, will offer the Bearcats a stiff challenge. With the SEC-losing team the likely opponent for the last at-large team, this will be a tough decision. I think, ultimately, it will go in the Broncos’ favor. Just too much media fallout if a three-loss team claims that spot. In addition, if Florida wins the SEC, the Sugar would be reluctant to take Virginia Tech as an opponent for Alabama, since the teams played (on a neutral site, even) in September.

The latest BCS standings are out, and with two games remaining for most teams, options are becoming more limited.

That’s not to say upsets are impossible. Upsets happen in college football, and I’d bet that at least one team currently penciled into a BCS slot will wind up on the sidelines.

A team needs to be in the top 14 in the final BCS standings for an at-large invitation.

Here’s the latest conference-by-conference rundown:

SEC

The SEC is certain to have two representatives in the BCS. The conference winner will play for the fictional national title. The runner up is likely to receive an automatic berth by virtue of a ranking in the top four.

Alabama (10-0), winner, West Division. I see the Crimson Tide beating Florida in the title game and playing for the championship.

Florida (10-0), winner, East Division. I see the Gators winding up third in the final standings, and gaining an automatic berth, chosen to anchor the Sugar Bowl.

Louisiana State (8-2). The Fighting Tigers should finish 10-2 and around 8th in the standings. Unfortunately, only two teams from one conference can play in the BCS.

Big Ten

The Big Ten has not had a good year, but it is top-heavy, with four teams currently 10th-16th in the standings. Each Big Ten team, with the exception of Wisconsin, only has one more game - a relatively easy game. So all four could well be eligible for BCS games.

Ohio State (9-2). The Buckeyes have clinched the Big Ten title, and will play in the Rose Bowl.

Penn State (9-2). The Nittany Lions should finish 10-2, and I’m guessing 10th in the standings. I see them gaining an at-large bid.

Iowa (9-2). The Hawkeyes will probably finish 10-2, but are dropping quickly in the polls. The voters should make sure that Penn State has a slight edge. I see them 11th in the standings.

Wisconsin (8-2). The Badgers have not been as impressive, but should be right on the verge of the top 14.

Pac Ten

The Pac Ten has had a nice year, but everyone keeps beating everyone else. So six different teams have only 2 or 3 losses. There are still important games left. I see the winner finishing in the top 14 in the BCS, but the way it’s shaping up, I do not see a second team becoming eligible.

Stanford (7-3). The Cardinal need a win over California at home next week. I see that happening. And I see Oregon and Arizona dropping games to give Stanford the Rose Bowl bid.

Oregon (8-2). Win out, and the Rose Bowl belongs to the Ducks. But it will be difficult to win at Arizona next week. And a dangerous Oregon State team visits in December. I see the Ducks losing one game and finishing just short in the standings.

Southern California (7-3). I think the Trojans can win out, but will be just a bit short in the BCS standings. The Trojans are still alive for the conference title, but only in a six-way tie requiring an enormous amount of help.

Arizona (6-3). Believe it or not, the Wildcats control their own destiny in the Pac Ten, something Stanford can’t say. But it’s a difficult path, hosting Oregon, then visiting Arizona State and Southern California. I don’t see that happening.

Oregon State (7-3). The Ducks need a win at Oregon, and some help against Arizona. The Pac Ten title is still possible, though unlikely.

California (7-3). The Golden Bears are the only team among the six that cannot win the conference.

ACC

Georgia Tech (10-1). The Yellowjackets will play in the ACC title game. A loss, and they’re still very much in the at-large hunt.

Virginia Tech (7-3). The Hokies should finish 9-3 and right behind the top Big Ten teams in the BCS standings. An at-large invitation is not out of the question.

Miami (7-3). The Hurricanes should be 9-3 as well, but short of placing in the top 14.

Clemson (7-3). With a win over Virginia, the Tigers will play Georgia Tech for the ACC title. I don’t expect a win there.

Boston College (7-3). The Eagles need two wins, which is likely, to win the Atlantic Division. But they also need a Clemson loss, which is very unlikely.

Big East

Cincinnati (10-0). The Bearcats visit Pittsburgh in December. Because it’s a road game, I’m predicting a loss. Still, Cincinnati will be eligible for an at-large berth.

Pittsburgh (9-1). The Panthers have a difficult schedule, traveling to West Virginia in two weeks, then hosting Cincinnati. For now, I’m predicting wins in both games and a Big East title. Anything less, and Pittsburgh is likely not going to qualify for the BCS.

Big XII

Texas (10-0). The Longhorns need just one win or one Oklahoma State loss to clinch the Southern Division. I see them winning the conference title and playing for the national championship.

Oklahoma State (8-2). If the Cowboys win their final two games, including a tough one at Oklahoma, they could very well take an at-large bid, ranked about 10th. But I don’t predict it.

Nebraska (7-3). The Cornhuskers host Kansas State next week for the opportunity to play Texas. While I see Nebraska winning this game, I do not see a conference title happening.

Kansas State (6-5). The Wildcats have the most losses of any team still mathematically alive for a BCS berth. That does not mean they will gain one.

Mid-Majors

Texas Christian (10-0). I see the Horned Frogs finishing 12-0 and gaining the automatic non-major berth in the BCS.

Boise State (10-0). The Broncos should finish undefeated and just a little bit short of TCU. Sixth in the BCS standings is a likely final result. And that doesn’t translate to enough money for the major bowls.

Current BCS Predictions:

National Title: Alabama (13-0, 1st) vs Texas (13-0, 2nd).
Sugar: Florida (12-1, 3rd) vs Virginia Tech (9-3, 13th).
Rose: Ohio State (10-2, 9th) vs Stanford (9-3, 14th).
Fiesta: Penn State (10-2, 10th) vs Pittsburgh (11-1, 7th).
Orange: Georgia Tech (12-1, 5th) vs Texas Christian (12-0, 4th).

Cincinnati (11-1, 11th) and Boise State (13-0, 6th) passed up as eligible at-large teams.

So, why do we write so much about the BCS, and relatively little about the NFL playoffs?

It’s because the college football championships are decided by a bunch of voters. It’s a rather frustrating exercise. Contracts worth millions are arbitrarily assigned. And in a format that’s political and often unfair.

Every once in a while, even professional politicians threaten to become involved. Our president has even said he would like to see a playoff system - you know, like the system used by every other major or minor sport in all of America.

While I personally hate the idea of any expansion of government, I can’t help but feel hope for Obama’s efforts - at least if he screws it up it can’t possibly be as catastrophic as the current plan to hand billions to health care executives. Oops, I mean health care reform.

We do need BCS reform. Some day, I hope to be writing about explaining how teams are doing in qualifying for a 16-school playoff tournament. Until then, I’ll focus on the invitations for the 10-team BCS tournament.

SEC

It still looks like the SEC will receive two BCS invitations, barring an early end to the world in a surge that churns our streets and apartment buildings into Hollywood-style rubble. Florida has already clinched the East spot in the conference championship game. Next Saturday, Louisiana State visits Alabama in a game that will very likely decide who plays Florida.

The winner of the SEC will probably play in the title game. The loser will probably go to the Sugar Bowl.

PAC Ten

Oregon is now in control, having thrashed USC at home. The Ducks visit Arizona on November 21 - the winner of that game likely winning the conference and playing in the Rose Bowl.

Two questions remain. Can Oregon receive a national championship berth? Likely no - the loss to Boise State was too memorable, and Boise State will be 13-0 and beyond infuriated if Oregon gets that opportunity while the Broncos might not even get a BCS invitation. Obama would have to intervene. I’m for that, as long as blue artificial turf is also banned.

Will the PAC Ten receive a second BCS berth, possibly at the expense of Boise State? USC and California both can finish at 10-2 without winning the league. Given their schedules, yes, I think that’s a definite possibility.

Big XII

Texas is now in control of the South Division, and headed toward the BCS title game. Oklahoma State has a rough road to travel to reach 10-2. I don’t see that happening. The North Division is a mess, with 5-4 Kansas State currently on top. Five of the six teams have five overall wins. I see the winner of the November 21 Kansas State at Nebraska game representing the sacrificial lamb to Texas in the Big XII championship. I do not see a second Big XII team with an BCS invitation, unless that lamb somehow roars enough to beat Texas.

Big Ten

Iowa travels to Ohio State on November 14, with the league title at stake. Ohio State also travels to Penn State this coming Saturday. So, Ohio State has three games remaining, one against Michigan. And the one with Michigan is the one that doesn’t matter in the slightest. How’s that for the legacy of Rich Rodriguez?

Since Iowa beat Penn State, Iowa would almost wrap up the conference with a win over Ohio State. Otherwise, all three teams are still in the hunt. A one-loss Penn State, especially with a visible win over the Buckeyes late, would receive a BCS at-large, however undeserving the Big Ten this year.

Wisconsin could also finish 10-2. I don’t see that as good enough for the BCS. I think an 11-1 Big Ten team gets a berth over a 10-2 Pac Ten team and a 13-0 Boise State. I don’t think a 10-2 Big Ten team has shown enough.

Big East

The Big East develops more slowly. Early bye weeks and playing on weekdays draws a little more attention to a league that often bridges the gap between the majors and the mid-majors. There are quality teams here, though. Cincinnati plays at Pittsburgh on December 5 in a game that might determine the conference champion. Both teams play West Virginia next month.

The teams with the better records have played less difficult schedules so far. I don’t see a runner-up coming out with less than two losses. I don’t think the runner-up will receive an at-large berth against the Big Ten or the Pac Ten runner-up.

ACC

Georgia Tech would just about wrap up a Coastal Division berth in the ACC title game with a win at Duke on November 14. While Duke is just one game from bowl-eligible, by the way, it’s by no means an easy win - the toughest part of the Blue Devil schedule remains. Miami, at 6-2, is the only other team in the league with less than three losses. The Hurricanes beat Georgia Tech head-to-head.

The Atlantic Division is far too close to call in any way. There’s very little chance the ACC runner-up would receive a BCS berth. It’s been a very bad year for the conference, and, unlike the Big Ten, teams aren’t standing out with good records. Miami and Georgia Tech, as 10-2 Coastal runners-up, would be the only possibilities.

Independent

Notre Dame is 6-2, and could reach 10-2. With a top-eight BCS ranking, that’s an automatic berth. The Irish schedule, normally one of the best in the country, is a little weaker this year.

Mid-Majors

In Conference USA, Houston is 7-1, and might well make it to 12-1 with a conference title. Wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State were impressive. But there’s the perception that a mid-major must be undefeated to reach the BCS.

In the Mountain West, Utah plays for the title at Texas Christian on November 14. Utah has been impressive, but lost its marquee non-conference game at Oregon. Texas Christian beat Virginia and Clemson and remains undefeated. TCU looks like it will receive the mid-major spot in the BCS should it win out.

In the WAC, Boise State remains on pace to reach a very easy 13-0. The Broncos have dropped behind TCU in the BCS standings and don’t really have an opportunity to impress the rest of the way.

Summary:

If I had to guess now, I’d say Florida and Texas will play for the BCS title, Iowa and Oregon will play in the Rose Bowl, the Sugar Bowl will take Alabama and be forced to take TCU. The Fiesta Bowl will have its pick from the at-large teams, with California affording a good match-up with the Big Ten runner up (USC would be more difficult to match, as the BCS frowns upon rematches of last year’s bowls or games played earlier this year). The Orange Bowl would take the ACC and Big East winners.