Predictions for the bowls taking place from January 1-8 can be found on the College Schedule.

My best bet is Utah (+9) against Alabama on January 2.

I’m 7-9 on college best bets this season. The system to 516-189 straight up and 325-342-38 against the spread. In the early bowls, it was 9-13 straight up and 12-8-2 against the spread.

As we’ve all heard endlessly today, the New England Patriots became the first 11-5 team to miss the playoffs since the NFL expanded to a 12-team playoff format.

A quick look at regular-season records and playoff invitations:

32 Teams, Eight divisions (2002-2008, 7 seasons):

16-0, 1 team, 1 in playoffs
15-1, 1 team, 1 in playoffs
14-2, 4 teams, 4 in playoffs
13-3, 10 teams, 10 in playoffs
12-4, 16 teams, 16 in playoffs
11-5, 16 teams, 15 in playoffs
10-5-1, 1 team, 1 in playoffs
10-6, 24 teams, 21 in playoffs
9-6-1, 2 teams, 2 in playoffs
9-7, 26 teams, 9 in playoffs
8-8, 27 teams, 4 in playoffs
7-9, 23 teams, 0 in playoffs
6-10, 18 teams
5-11, 21 teams
4-11-1, 1 team
4-12, 21 teams
3-13, 4 teams
2-14, 6 teams
1-15, 1 team
0-16, 1 team

Modern 12-team playoffs, 28-31 teams, (1990-2001, 12 seasons):

15-1, 1 team, 1 in playoffs
14-2, 7 teams, 7 in playoffs
13-3, 17 teams, 17 in playoffs
12-4, 21 teams, 21 in playoffs
11-5, 33 teams, 33 in playoffs
10-5-1, 1 team, 1 in playoffs
10-6, 35 teams, 33 in playoffs
9-7, 44 teams, 27 in playoffs
8-7-1, 1 team, 0 in playoffs
8-8, 40 teams, 4 in playoffs
7-9, 39 teams, 0 in playoffs
6-9-1, 2 teams
6-10, 37 teams
5-11, 25 teams
4-12, 22 teams
3-13, 18 teams
2-14, 5 teams
1-15, 5 teams

10-team playoffs, 16-game season, 28 teams, (1978-1989, 10 seasons, discounting 15-game strike season of 1987 and 9-game season of 1982):

15-1, 2 teams, 2 in playoffs
14-2, 6 teams, 6 in playoffs
13-3, 2 teams, 2 in playoffs
12-4, 21 teams, 21 in playoffs
11-4-1, 1 team, 1 in playoffs
11-5, 23 teams, 22 in playoffs (1985 Broncos did not make playoffs)
10-5-1, 2 teams, 2 in playoffs
10-6, 35 teams, 25 in playoffs
9-6-1, 1 team, 1 in playoffs
9-7, 34 teams, 16 in playoffs
8-7-1, 5 teams, 1 in playoffs
8-8, 32 teams, 1 in playoffs
7-8-1, 1 team, 0 in playoffs
7-9, 32 teams, 0 in playoffs
6-9-1, 1 team
6-10, 19 teams
5-10-1, 3 teams
5-11, 22 teams
4-11-1, 3 teams
4-12, 16 teams
3-12-1, 1 team
3-13, 5 teams
2-14, 11 teams
1-15, 2 teams

We’ve now had 29 seasons of the 16-game schedule, and 182 teams have finished 11-5 or better. Only this year’s Patriots and the 1985 Broncos failed to reach the playoffs. And in 1985, only ten teams made the playoffs.

In addition, since moving to the 12-team playoffs, 54 of the 59 teams finishing 10-6, including this year’s Vikings, have reached the playoffs.

Three games back of the Patriots, the San Diego Chargers finished 8-8 with a win tonight, and will participate in the playoffs as the AFC West winner. These .500 teams are only 9-for-99 reaching the playoffs in the 16-game era, including 1-for-5 this season.

At 9-7, teams are 50/50 in moving on to the playoffs, 52-for-104. This year was tough on that group with another 1-for-5.

The Patriots made history this year for two reasons:

One, the AFC East played both western divisions in full. These divisions were a remarkable combined 38 games below .500 this year. So it’s not surprising the AFC East teams had fattened records. And two, while there were no teams 14-2 or better this year, there were three teams 2-14 or worse. So every record was a bit inflated in the NFL this season. Parity among the better teams, helped by some truly dismal teams.

There will be talk of reworking the playoff system to prevent a scenario repeating where an 11-5 team stays home while an 8-8 team went to the playoffs. I find that completely unnecessary.

Ironically, had that 11-5 team beaten that 8-8 in their Week Six match-up, the 11-5 team would have won its division and the 8-8 team would have stayed home (though another 11-5 team, Miami, would have failed to reach, and another 8-8 team, Denver, would have taken San Diego’s place).

This order takes into account playoff teams seeded behind non-playoff teams with the same record, but does not take into account expected playoff results.

1. Detroit (0-16)
2. St. Louis (2-14)
3. Kansas City (2-14)
4. Seattle (4-12)
5. Cleveland (4-12)
6. Cincinnati (4-11-1)
7. Oakland (5-11)
8. Jacksonville (5-11)
9. Green Bay (6-10)
10. San Francisco (7-9)
11. Buffalo (7-9)
12. Denver (8-8)
13. Washington (8-8)
14. New Orleans (8-8)
15. Houston (8-8)
16. San Diego (8-8) *
17. New York Jets (9-7)
18. Chicago (9-7)
19. Tampa Bay (9-7)
20. Dallas (9-7) (pick traded to Detroit)
21. Arizona (9-7) *
22. Philadelphia (9-6-1) *
23. Minnesota (10-6) *
24. New England (11-5)
25. Atlanta (11-5) *
26. Miami (11-5) *
27. Baltimore (11-5) *
28. Carolina (12-4) * (pick traded to Philadelphia)
29. Indianapolis (12-4) *
30. New York Giants (12-4) *
31. Pittsburgh (12-4) *
32. Tennessee (13-3) *

* - team is in playoffs. Teams with the same record are ordered based on how far they go in the playoffs. The Super Bowl runner up and winner pick 31st and 32nd, regardless of record.

Predictions for this week in the NFL can be found on the NFL Schedule.

My best bet for this week is the Chicago (+2) at Houston.

I’m 10-6 on NFL best bets this season. Last week I was 9-7 straight up and 7-8-1 against the spread. My season totals are 154-85-1, and 106-117-17.

Predictions for the bowls taking place from December 20-31 can be found on the College Schedule.

My best bet is Air Force (+3) against Houston on December 31.

I’m 7-8 on college best bets this season. The system to 507-176 straight up and 313-334-36 against the spread.

If all the favorites win in week 17, here’s how the playoff pairings will look:

AFC

1) Tennessee (14-2)
2) Pittsburgh (12-4)

6) Baltimore (11-5) at 3) New England (11-5)
5) Indianapolis (11-5) at 4) San Diego (8-8) (Indianapolis beat San Diego, 23-20, on the road in week 12)

NFC

1) New York Giants (12-4)
2) Carolina (12-4)

6) Tampa Bay (10-6) at 3) Minnesota (10-6) (Tampa Bay beat Minnesota, 19-13, at home in week 11)
5) Atlanta (11-5) at 4) Arizona (9-7)

Just a quick update on NFC playoff probabilities and scenarios.

NFC East

The New York Giants have clinched the division and the first seed.

Dallas wins a wild-card berth if it beats Philadelphia next week, and is out of the playoffs with a loss. The playoff berth is the 5th seed if Atlanta loses to St. Louis next week, the 6th seed otherwise.

Philadelphia wins a wild-card berth if it beats Dallas next week and Oakland beats Tampa Bay and one of the following: Chicago loses to Houston next week or Minnesota loses to the Giants next week.

NFC North

Minnesota will clinch the division by beating the Giants next week, or if Chicago loses at Houston next week. The Vikings will either be the third seed, or absent from the playoffs.

Chicago can win the division and the third seed by beating Houston next week and if Minnesota loses to the Giants next week. The Bears can win a wild-card berth as the sixth seed by winning at Houston and if Philadelphia beats Dallas next week and if Oakland beats Tampa Bay next week.

NFC South

Carolina wins the second seed (also a first-round bye) with a win at New Orleans next week or if St. Louis beats Atlanta next week. With a loss and an Atlanta victory, the Panthers still earn a wild-card berth and the 5th seed.

Atlanta wins the second seed and the division if Carolina loses to New Orleans next week and if it beats St. Louis next week. Otherwise, the Falcons have still clinched a wild-card berth. This will be the fifth seed with a win next week, or if Dallas loses to Philadelphia.

Tampa Bay wins a wild-card berth as the sixth seed if it beats or ties Oakland next week and Dallas loses to Philadelphia.

NFC West

Arizona is the division champion and the 4th seed.

Probabilities, based on the early odds coming out of Vegas:

Games that matter:

Carolina (-3) at New Orleans
Dallas at Philadelphia (-1 1/2)
New York Giants at Minnesota (-6 1/2)
Oakland at Tampa Bay (-13)
Chicago at Houston (-3)
St. Louis at Atlanta (-15)

Playoff Probabilities:

Seed 1: New York Giants 100%
Seed 2: Carolina 60%, Atlanta 40%
Seed 3: Minnesota 87%, Chicago 13%
Seed 4: Arizona 100%
Seed 5: Atlanta 58%, Carolina 40%, Dallas 2%
Seed 6: Tampa Bay 49%, Dallas 44%, Chicago 2%, Atlanta 2%, Philadelphia 2%

This order takes into account playoff teams seeded behind non-playoff teams with the same record, but does not take into account expected playoff results.

1. Detroit (0-16)
2. St. Louis (2-14)
3. Kansas City (2-14)
4. Seattle (4-12)
5. Oakland (4-12)
6. Cleveland (4-12)
7. Cincinnati (4-11-1)
8. Jacksonville (5-11)
9. San Francisco (6-10)
10. Green Bay (6-10)
11. Buffalo (7-9)
12. Houston (7-9)
13. Denver (8-8)
14. New Orleans (8-8)
15. San Diego (8-8)
16. Washington (9-7)
17. Dallas (9-7) (pick traded to Detroit)
18. Arizona (9-7)
19. Philadelphia (9-6-1)
20. Miami (10-6)
21. New York Jets (10-6)
22. Chicago (10-6)
22. Denver (10-6)
23. Tampa Bay (10-6)
24. Minnesota (10-6)
24. New York Jets (11-5)
25. Atlanta (11-5)
26. New England (11-5)
27. Indianapolis (11-5)
28. Baltimore (11-5)
29. Carolina (12-4) (pick traded to Philadelphia)
30. New York Giants (12-4)
31. Pittsburgh (12-4)
32. Tennessee (14-2)

Comments on picks 2-3:

St. Louis and Kansas City are very close in this race. Both are currently 2-13, and, projections have St. Louis’ opponents with 136 wins and Kansas City’s with 137. These teams are guaranteed to have picks 2 and 3.

Eight games affect this race. St. Louis benefits from wins by Green Bay (Chicago), Minnesota (New York Giants), Houston (Chicago), Washington (San Francisco), Tennessee (Indianapolis), Oakland (Tampa Bay) and Cincinnati (Kansas City). Right now, St. Louis has a one-game edge.

At 2-14, St. Louis would have a two-game edge, from the Cincinnati win. This is a close race that could well wind up in a coin-flip.

Comments on picks 4-10:

Cincinnati is 3-11-1 and currently in the fourth position, but the Bengals are playing better as of late, and host Kansas City next week. This pick could be as low as seventh. Cincinnati doesn’t have to worry about tiebreakers, as ties are very rare in the NFL.

Seattle, Oakland and Cleveland are 4-11. These picks could be as high as fourth and as low as ninth.

Seattle is guaranteed to hold all tiebreakers, except possibly with Oakland in extreme circumstances, and will pick from 4-7.

Oakland could pick from 4-8 and Cleveland, which can not win a tiebreaker with any team, from 4-9.

Jacksonville is 5-10, and could pick anywhere from 7-10.

Green Bay is 5-9, and could pick anywhere from 6-13, though it’s extremely unlikely the pick would be lower than 11th, even if the Packers win their remaining two games.

San Francisco is 6-9, and along with Buffalo, holds tiebreakers over every other potentially tied team. The 49ers could pick anywhere from 8-11.

Buffalo, San Diego and Houston are 7-9. Buffalo could pick as high as 9th and as low as 13th. The Chargers or the Texans could pick as high as 10th, but only in an extreme situation where Green Bay wins its final two games and gets a lot of help.

Not only is the AFC playoff picture very clearly in focus, only four games next week are even factor into the seeding.

AFC East

Miami wins the division and the third seed by beating the New York Jets next week. A loss, and the Dolphins stay home for the playoffs.

The New York Jets win the division and that third seed by beating visiting Miami next week, and if New England loses to Buffalo.  The Jets can still win a wild-card spot and the sixth seed by beating Miami - if the Patriots win and Baltimore loses to Jacksonville. A loss eliminates the Jets.

New England wins the division and the third seed by beating Buffalo, and if the Jets beat Miami. The Patriots can win a wild-card spot and the sixth seed by beating Buffalo - if Miami wins and Baltimore loses to Jacksonville. A loss eliminates New England.

AFC North

Pittsburgh has won the division and the second seed, which includes a first-round bye.

Baltimore clinches a wild-card berth and the sixth seed by beating Jacksonville, or if Buffalo beats New England. The Jets game is of no interest.

AFC South

Tennessee has won the division and the top seed.

Indianapolis has clinched a wild-card berth and the fifth seed.

AFC West

Denver visits San Diego next week. The winner of that game earns the division title and the fourth seed.

Summary

Going by the very early Vegas odds, San Diego has a 71% chance of winning a playoff spot, Denver a 29% chance.

Miami has a 42% chance of winning the AFC East, New England 38% and the Jets 19%.

Baltimore has an 88% chance of winning the second wild-card spot, the Jets 7% and New England 5%.

What’s remarkable today, looking at the playoff picture, is that terms like “Strength of Victory” are entirely absent from the vocabulary. Even “Common Games” only pops up once in a while.

NFC East

The New York Giants have clinched the division and a first-round bye. They will claim the first seed if they come back and defeat Carolina tonight.

Dallas wins a wild-card berth if it beats Philadelphia next week, and is out of the playoffs with a loss. This is the 5th seed if Atlanta loses to St. Louis next week, the 6th seed otherwise.

Philadelphia wins a wild-card berth if it beats Dallas next week and Oakland beats Tampa Bay and one of the following: Chicago loses either tomorrow night or next week or Minnesota loses to the Giants next week.

NFC North

Minnesota will clinch the division by beating the Giants next week, or if Chicago loses to either Green Bay tomorrow or at Houston next week. The Vikings will either be the third seed, or absent from the playoffs.

Chicago can win the division and the third seed by beating Green Bay tomorrow, beating Houston next week and if Minnesota loses to the Giants next week. The Bears can win a wild-card berth as the sixth seed by winning  their final two games and if Philadelphia beats Dallas next week and if Oakland beats Tampa Bay next week. The Bears need a lot of help.

NFC South

Carolina wins the first seed if it holds on against the Giants tonight. Otherwise, the Panthers win the second seed (also a first-round bye) with a win at New Orleans next week or if St. Louis beats Atlanta next week.  With two losses and an Atlanta victory, the Panthers still earn a wild-card berth and the 5th seed.

Atlanta wins the second seed and the division if the Giants come back against Carolina tonight, Carolina loses to New Orleans next week and if it beats St. Louis next week. Otherwise, the Falcons have still clinched a wild-card berth. This will be the fifth seed with a win next week, or if Dallas loses to Philadelphia.

Tampa Bay wins a wild-card berth as the sixth seed if it beats or ties Oakland next week and Dallas loses to Philadelphia.

NFC West

Arizona is the division champion and the 4th seed.

Predictions for this week in the NFL can be found on the NFL Schedule.

My best bet for this week is the Tampa Bay (-3) vs San Diego.

I’m 10-5 on NFL best bets this season. Last week I was 11-5 straight up and 6-7-3 against the spread. My season totals are 145-78-1, and 99-109-16.

Predictions for the bowls taking place from December 20-31 can be found on the College Schedule.

My best bet is Air Force (+3) against Houston on December 31.

I’m 7-8 on college best bets this season. The system to 507-176 straight up and 313-334-36 against the spread.